蔡崇信撰文：阿里巴巴是这样看自己的

蔡崇信

新浪科技讯 北京时间5月5日晚间消息， 阿里巴巴集团公布2016财年第四季度财报 ，以及2016财年全年业绩。财年第四季度， 阿里巴巴 集团收入同比增长39%，达到241.84亿元人民币；平台成交额同比增长24%，达到7420亿元人民币。在过去一年全球担忧中国经济放缓背景下，阿里的成交额和收入实现双增长，增幅超越华尔街预期。

阿里巴巴集团董事局执行副主席蔡崇信就此在 www.alizila.com 撰文对美国投资者详述，在全球经济面临挑战的情况下，为何阿里巴巴能够做到逆势而行。

以下为全文：

今天我们发布了自己优异的业绩。我们这个季度的收入同比增长39%。在过去的一年，有4.23亿消费者在我们的零售平台上购物，三月份有4.1亿手机用户在我们的手机端上消费。

在全球经济面临挑战的情况下，阿里巴巴逆势而行。我们为何能做到？

消费驱动强劲增长

首先，看一下中国的消费者。中国家庭现在拥有超过4.6万亿美元的储蓄。这是过去十几年中国工资实际两位数增长的结果。与此形成对照的是，2008年美国家庭的债务占到了国内生产总值的98%，美国家庭普遍背负沉重的债务。美国消费者的杠杆消费和信用透支加剧了全球的金融危机。

中国消费者相对谨慎的消费习惯，将推动中国经济从出口投资导向型转向内需拉动型。阿里巴巴借助了这一趋势，帮助提供更多的商品和服务给消费者，不论是国产的还是进口的。

阿里生态的战略角度

其次，看一下阿里巴巴的业务。我们有一个多元平衡的业务组合，处于不同的增长阶段、盈利曲线和现金流水平。根据成长阶段，我们将这些业务分成“核心现金流”、“新兴引擎”和“长期战略投资”三大类型。

核心现金流

我们核心的电商业务非常强劲，现金流充沛。我们这个季度的零售平台收入同比增长41%，保持了较高、可持续的销售净利率。

2016财年我们在核心业务上实现了80亿美元的自由现金流。这将有助于我们未来的投资。

新兴引擎

我们很高兴地看到我们还拥有高增长潜力和长远展望空间的业务。

阿里云目前是世界上最大的云计算服务商之一。在最近的这个季度，该业务同比增长175%，而上一个季度这个数字是126%。

另一个新兴引擎是移动互联网，包括移动搜索和移动媒体。在本季度，我们的移动互联网及移动操作系统业务收入同比增长约50%左右，显示出除了移动电子商务外，中国在移动端生活方式上的商业潜力。

长期战略投资

阿里巴巴过往的历史证明我们具有成功实现长期战略投资的能力。以淘宝平台为例， 2003年，网上购物在中国尚未实质性兴起，我们启动了淘宝。在最初的五年里我们没有产生任何收入；相反，我们专注于用户的累积和建立一个电子商务生态系统。淘宝直到2010年才开始有盈利。我们的耐心获得了回报。

我们习惯于投资回报周期长的长期投资项目。五到七年时间的。能够做到这点，是我们在长远发展中的竞争优势。

未来我们将继续投资那些对阿里巴巴来说具有高度战略意义的有潜力的业务，从数娱到本地服务到国际扩张。这些业务会影响我们眼前的收入。不过，我们投资这些业务是为了将来它们能够变成新兴的引擎，最终产生核心现金流。

我相信投资这些战略性项目可以提升阿里巴巴的品牌连锁价值和效应，无论是作为单独的业务，还是在阿里平台上帮助更多消费者获得更多的服务。

互联网是未来

最后，看一下大的图景。中国有6.88亿互联网用户。其中6.2亿用户通过移动端上网。75%的中国互联网用户在40岁以下——互联网是未来，因为年轻人在用它。

WHY ALIBABA IS THRIVING IN A CHALLENGING GLOBAL ECONOMY

Today we reported excellent results. Our revenues grew 39% year-on-year for the quarter. There are now 423 million shoppers who have bought something on our China retail platform in the past year, and 410 million mobile users who were active on our China retail mobile apps during the month of March。

In these challenging times for the global economy, Alibaba is bucking the trend. Why?

Consumption propels strong growth

First, take a look at the Chinese consumer. Chinese households today have aggregate net cash reserves of over $4.6 trillion. This accumulated wealth and liquidity is the result of real double-digit wage growth over the past decade. In contrast, household debt in the U.S. was 98 percent of GDP in 2008 and the average American family was in heavy debt. The levered balance sheet of the American consumer and their credit deterioration contributed to the global financial crisis。

Chinese consumers, with their healthy balance sheets and ability to spend, will propel China’s shift from an export-and investment-led economy to a consumption-driven economy. Alibaba rides on top of this secular tide as we enable more products and services, be it domestic or import, to reach the consumer。

A strategic perspective on Alibaba’s ecosystem

Second, take a look at Alibaba’s businesses. We have a balanced portfolio of businesses in our ecosystem that are in various stages of growth, profit trajectory and cash generation. Depending on years in gestation, we group these businesses into what I call “Core Cash Flow,” “Emerging Traction” and “Long-term Strategic Bets。”

Core Cash Flow

Our core e-commerce business is strong and extremely cash generative. We achieved 41% year-on-year revenue growth in China retail marketplaces for the quarter, with high and sustainable operating margins。

On the strength of our core business, we delivered $8 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2016. This enables us to invest for the future。

Emerging Traction

We are excited to see that several of our businesses have emerged with high growth traction and expanding operating leverage。

Alibaba Cloud is today one of the largest cloud computing businesses in the world. In the latest quarter this business saw 175 percent year-on-year revenue growth, which is an acceleration of the 126 percent growth rate from the prior quarter。

Another Emerging Traction star is mobile internet services, including mobile search and mobile media. In this quarter we have provided a glimpse into the potential of the mobile lifestyle in China in addition to mobile commerce, as revenues from mobile internet services and mobile operating systems grew around 50% year-on-year。

Long-term Strategic Bets

Alibaba has an incredible track record of making long-term bets successful. Here, a bit of historical perspective is important. Take Taobao Marketplace as an example. We started Taobao in 2003 when online shopping in China was virtually non-existent. For five years we didn’t generate any revenues; instead we focused on acquiring users and building an e-commerce ecosystem. Taobao didn’t produce meaningful profits until 2010, seven years after its founding. Patience has paid off。

We are used to investing in long-term initiatives with long gestation periods. Five to seven years. Being able to do this is a competitive advantage。

Going forward we are prepared to continue investing in high potential businesses that are highly strategic to Alibaba, from digital entertainment to local services to international expansion. These businesses contribute to losses in our current income statement. However, we invest in them so that they graduate to Emerging Traction, and then to Core Cash Flow。

I believe investing in strategic bets accrues long-term franchise value to Alibaba, both as stand-alone businesses and as they enable more consumers to access more services on the Alibaba platform。

Internet is the future

Finally, look at the big picture. China has 688 million internet users. Of this, 620 million users access the internet using a mobile device. Seventy-five percent of Chinese internet users are younger than 40 years old – the internet is the future because young people are on it。

I don’t know about you but I am extremely excited by this。